Saturday, January 30, 2010

Now I know how Brett Favre felt with that New Orleans blitz pounding away at him


Dow Jones 10,067 (down), trading week ending 1/29/2010

If you had jumped into the market after those couple down days, buying on the dip,
you were hit with a major hail storm of stock selling and had "your head handed to you" in football slang parlance. Now I know how Brett Favre felt in the NFC Championship game with the New Orleans Saints smacking him down to the ground. It hurts!

The Big Dogs on the street, which have all reported well, Apple Computer (Symbol AAPL), Microsoft Inc.(Symbol MSFT) and Google Inc.(Symbol GOOG), all took their licks this week and were down. Our president, whose friends call him "Barry", gave the State of the Union speech on my birthday 1/27 and the Q4 GDP number came in at 5.7% percent Friday. The street has seen higher numbers in the past coming out of a recession, so good was seen as bad.

One bright note, it is my mentor's birthday today, Louis Rukeyser, who was born 1/30/1933. Happy Birthday Lou!

So, what did do well in January? I went in search to the NASDAQ exchange Sector Performance page for some help on that.

Culp Inc. (Symbol CFI), who is in the textile industry,
"Textiles, are we actually talking about the US textile industry?"
(reference to Allen Iverson - Phila. 76er and his famous quote about "practice"), was up 30.26% in January and continues to elevate. Sales and earnings here seem to be rising. I was looking to buy it on a dip to the sub $10.00 area, but it shot up to $13.06 by the end of the week. I will be patient.

A list of some others which I did not research and am just reporting:
Bare Escentuals (Symbol BARE) up 30 plus % on a tender offer. Mindspeed Tech (Symbol MSPD) up 34.75% in January 2010. LTX Credence (Symbol LTXC) up 41.01%.Libbey Inc. (Symbol LBY) up 34.14%. Radio One Inc.(Symbol ROIA) up 26.73%. Also Houston America (Symbol HUSA) and Crocs Inc. (Symbol CROX) were both up 25% plus.

What does all this mean? That February is coming, and it's cold, and Ground Hog Day is coming up soon here in Pennsylvania,(Phil will see his shadow). These things I am sure of. Everything else is left to chance. Be patient is all I can tell you.

Best regards,

Freewilly

Wednesday, January 20, 2010

If you want to cruise along in 2010 - you better "Hang 10" and not "Wipeout"

< Dow Jones 10,172.98 (down).

In USA - Cell Phone text "Haiti" and send to 90999 to help with Haiti relief aid. $10.00 will go to Red Cross.

My friend Colton who lives in Hawaii is always sending me cool pictures so that I will come out and see him there. One of the things on my bucket list is to go to the North Shore of Oahu and witness "The Eddie", one of surfing’s most prestigious events, with expected 30 to 50 foot high waves. "It is the ride that electrifies thousands of fans who descend on Waimea Bay, the famed surfing cove where Eddie Aikau, a legendary surfer and lifeguard, once plied the waves".

Well with great risk there can be great excitement, buy it is not always the best idea to try to find this excitement by doing wild and crazy moves in your investment portfolio. Save that for your surfboard action. So let's talk about some insurance company stocks for solid investments. (boy, that's a buzz kill, huh! total letdown). I would rather keep your investments in the 3 foot waves, like in Wildwood, New Jersey.


Lincoln National Corp. (Symbol LNC $24.50) a life insurance company and sponsor of our very own beloved and maligned Philadelphia Eagles and their home stadium aptly named "the Linc", is my first suggestion. Projected 5 yr.sales growth rate of 13.42%, 12 month return of 62%, PE 7.76, Earnings 2010 of $3.16 and 2011 of $3.38 per share. No waves here!

Chubb Corp.,(Symbol CB $48.02), a property and casualty insurer with a dividend yield of 2.92% is representing that group. Forward PE (price to earnings) of 9. Growing at 7.72% with a net profit margin of 15% and 2010 earnings of $5.39 per share. No Tsunami warnings here!

AFLAC Inc. (Symbol AFL $49.10) is an accident and health insurer of supplemental insurance. It has a 12 month total return of 116.4%. Projected long term earnings growth of 14.5%.
Dividend of 2.28% and 2010 projected earnings of $5.28 per share which is a PE of 9.3. Ducks can swim, so no problem with the water here.

So keep your head above the water and stay on top of the waves,

Freewilly

Saturday, January 16, 2010

That Energizer Bunny keeps going and going ...... for consistent profits.


I must have batteries on the brain! Portable Energy Storage Devices. The storage and movement of energy with electricity, liquefied natural gas including Methane and Hydrogen, Wind, Solar, Water Hydro, Geothermal, and Nuclear will be important and large businesses in this new decade. Monitoring the movement of this energy is something the company I work for, Numerex Corp.,(Symbol NMRX), does very well, with Device, Application, and Network services brought together and offered as a combined solution.(D-N-A).

The disciples of Charles Tandy, John Roach, Bernie Appel and Lew Kornfeld at Radio Shack Corp.,(Symbol RSH), are forever inventing new electronic gadgets for you to put batteries into. Boom boxes, electronic toys, musical keyboards, home fire alarms, TV remotes, flashlights and the list goes on ad infinitum. Warren Buffett, at Berkshire Hathaway (symbol BRK.B) even figured out how to put a battery in a disposable razor blade to get the little hairs on your chin to stand on end! So where is all this leading to you ask?

Energizer Holdings Inc.,(Symbol ENR), the company engaged in the business of manufacturing batteries, flashlights and personal care products in the wet shave, skin care, feminine care and infant care product categories. It has a 12 month total return of 33.6%. The PE ratio is 13.48 based 2009 earnings of $4.72 a share. Projected 2010 earnings per share $5.30 share, 2011 is $5.89 per share. Gross margins are 49.73% overall. It is frankly a somewhat boring business. 10% projected sales growth. I think it will be a winner in what I think will be a tumultuous 2010 trading market as the Fed starts to slowly drain liquidity out of the markets. Caution is the watch word for 2010 trading.

So recharge your batteries and get back into the fray!

Freewilly

Saturday, January 9, 2010

Ben, I just want to say one word to you, "Plastics" - from the movie The Graduate (1967).........Fast-forward to 2010

Good morning and Happy 2010. If they were remaking the movie The Graduate today in 2010, when Mr. McGuire pulls aside young Ben Braddock (Dustin Hoffman) and says," I just want to say one word to you", "are you listening", the word would be "Synthetics". "There's a great future in Synthetics". "Enough said". What are some of the names of these producers of specialty compounds and chemicals you ask? Well the one everyone loves for the long term is Sociedad Qufmica y Minera de Chile S.A. ADR, (Symbol NYSE: SQM), the miner of lithium and potash. The Hybrid automobile market needs boatloads of Lithium to make all those car batteries, not to mention the batteries in all those cell phones, I-phones and I-pods. The Andes mountains hold 90% of the world's lithium brine. Enough said. Rated a hold currently because of being fully valued and having some pesky cash problems with paying their dividend, this is a good 3-year investment at the right buy in point.
Praxair Inc.(Symbol PX) would be the next stock I would mention. They produce Oxygen. Pretty important stuff for life. Good sales growth 14.8%, good earnings, good dividend, 43% operating margins. Enough said.
Calgon Carbon Corp., (Symbol CCC), falls into the synthetics group also. They purify dirty water and do Mercury removal. Important stuff for human existance. This stock is up 141% in 3 years. Earnings are starting to advance nicely. Enough said.
I should mention that I am not a registered financial advisor and that everything that I report is just from my common sense observation. I do have a degree in Psychology from Rutgers, Camden NJ., (symbol R.U.C.C.A.S.), if that gives you some comfort, so I can console you on any bad trades you make.
Last, but not least, is Albemarle Corp., (Symbol NYSE: ALB).
These guys have three operating segments: Polymer Additives, Catalysts and Fine Chemicals. Earnings estimate for this year are $1.80, for next year $2.47 per share. 12 month total return is 74.8%. 5 year earnings growth of 21.92%. Look it up if you don't beleive me. http://www.smartmoney.com. The link is on my blog.

So if you want to find your Elaine (below) .............


you better do your homework, and look at the numbers.

Enough Said,

Freewilly

Saturday, January 2, 2010

Instead of a grand 2010 prediction list -how about just one Energy stock idea




I tend to be contrary to doing the predictable. It may be the Scotch, Dutch, Irish, or Italian decendency that makes me that way, and I will let you decide. I did not want to do the big 2010 "roundtable list" and throw a dozen names at you. I thought it better to give you one good idea from public information.
On December 7th, Bloomberg News reported that McDERMOTT International Inc,(Symbol MDR - price $24.01) whose price has doubled this year, will seperate itself into two distinct companies. One will be named J. Ray McDERMOTT and be in the offshore Oil & Gas engineering business. The other will be Babcock and Wilcox Company which builds reactors for the US Navy and the government. This will allow Babcock to have a better opportunity to win more government bids and also make it a desirable takeover target. Analysts think that J.Ray McDERMOTT could be worth $21.00 and Babcock $12.00 a share at the breakup. Well do the math, and you could come up with a fairly low risk one year investment with a 38% return plus any rise in the stocks, in a year that they say there could be some rough sledding in the market.
I beleive (MDR) should earn a spot in your investment lineup in 2010.

Please comment with your good idea stock for 2010.

All the best , Freewilly